Loyola Chicago

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	22.0
Current RPI:	22
Expected SOS:	127
Current SOS:	127
Current Record:	27-5
Expected Record:	27-5
Current Conf Record:	18-3
Expected Conf Record:	18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	14-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	57
Expected OOC SOS:	265

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-5	22.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	84-80	W	100%
11-16	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	56-66	W	100%
11-19	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	88-67	W	100%
11-21	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	63-50	W	100%
11-24	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	N	102-78	W	100%
11-25	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	N	75-60	W	100%
11-28	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	87-53	L	0%
12-2	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	85-61	W	100%
12-6	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	59-65	W	100%
12-9	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	80-52	W	100%
12-16	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	73-56	L	0%
12-22	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	64-59	L	0%
12-30	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	66-59	W	100%
1-3	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	57-61	L	0%
1-7	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	50-56	W	100%
1-10	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	61-68	W	100%
1-13	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	81-65	W	100%
1-17	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	79-65	W	100%
1-21	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	54-70	W	100%
1-24	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	57-80	W	100%
1-28	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	70-47	W	100%
1-31	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	69-67	L	0%
2-3	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	97-75	W	100%
2-7	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	72-57	W	100%
2-10	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	71-75	W	100%
2-14	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	80-71	W	100%
2-18	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	66-76	W	100%
2-21	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	56-75	W	100%
2-24	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	68-61	W	100%
3-2	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	N	54-50	W	100%
3-3	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	N	62-54	W	100%
3-4	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	N	65-49	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola Chicago	MVC	26.57	26.57	86.99	86.99	19.65	19.65
Illinois St.	MVC	5.76	5.76	58.62	58.62	0.99	0.99
Bradley	MVC	5.65	5.65	62.07	62.07	1.36	1.36
Northern Iowa	MVC	5.64	5.64	51.85	51.85	0.21	0.21
Missouri St.	MVC	4.21	4.21	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.21	4.21	63.33	63.33	1.12	1.12
Valparaiso	MVC	4.21	4.21	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Evansville	MVC	4.16	4.16	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Drake	MVC	4.16	4.16	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Indiana St.	MVC	4.15	4.15	37.04	37.04	-1.08	-1.08
Wright St.	Horz	1.76	1.76	74.19	74.19	0.85	0.85
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.76	1.76	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Milwaukee	Horz	1.71	1.71	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Kent St.	MAC	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	1.64	1.64	27.59	27.59	-0.73	-0.73
Boise St.	MWC	1.64	1.64	72.41	72.41	0.73	0.73
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	12.90	12.90	-1.20	-1.20
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Florida	SEC	1.56	1.56	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
UMKC	WAC	1.56	1.56	28.57	28.57	-0.67	-0.67
Chicago St.	WAC	0.26	0.26	3.33	3.33	-0.24	-0.24
Green Bay	Horz	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
IUPUI	Horz	0.22	0.22	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.20	0.20	32.35	32.35	-0.07	-0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.17	0.17	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Mississippi	SEC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Oakland	Horz	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	82.76	82.76	0.10	0.10
Tulsa	Amer	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Bowling Green	MAC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00